How the West diverges from the rest
Rapid, two-wave repricing cycle and heavier regulatory friction
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| 2023-24 macro-picture |
West (focus on CA, but echoed in AZ/CO/WA filings¹) |
Midwest & Atlantic (benchmark) |
| Timing of filings |
Two dense “bursts” – Jan-Mar ’23 and May-Aug ’24, followed by another due for late-2025. “Rate-Impact-Over-Time” plots show the peaks clearly. |
More even quarter-to-quarter cadence. |
| Magnitude |
Double-digit to mid-40% average increases common; marquee requests at 60% (Travelers) and 59% (AmGUARD). |
High-single- to low-double-digit averages, very few >25%. |
| Regulatory posture |
CA DOI objections lengthen approval cycles; WA & OR mandate climate-/mileage-factor disclosures. |
Faster approvals; fewer public objections. |
| Competitive exits |
Allstate & GEICO full withdrawal from CA; several West-only programs shelved. |
No comparable large-carrier exits. |
¹ Exact figures for WA/OR/AZ are available in the companion “Rate Impacts by Carrier in the West” data file; trends mirror the CA pattern but at ~10 ppts lower on average.
Carrier playbooks by state since 2023 (Western focus)
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| Lead State |
Carrier (key SERFF) |
Core Tactic |
2023-25 Rate Path |
Notable Product / Form Moves |
| California |
Farmers – FARM-133728959 & FARM-134082111 |
Staged “COM 1.0 → 2.0” migration with cumulative >60% increase across three exchanges. |
+22.3% (Jul ’24) → +29.7% (Jan ’25). |
New vehicle-use factors, EFT-discount rules, cannabis-program withdrawal. |
|
CNA – CNA – CNAB-133696823 |
One-time “reset” filing across six entities; 40-54% hikes. |
Effective Nov 1 ’24. |
GAP, Volunteer NOLI endorsements; $22M premium lift. |
|
AIG – AGNY-133746770 / AGNY-134201837 |
Selective (219 policies) 30-39% hikes targeting distressed books. |
Jun-Aug ’24 approvals pending. |
Alt-fuel deductible incentive; sexual-abuse liability form; auto-hacking limits. |
|
Coast National (BH) – BRWS-133690786 |
New COM 1.0 launch; 41% base-rate jump, then 28% COM 2.0 tweak. |
Nov ’23 then Oct ’24. |
Emphasis on fees/charges transparency; EFT eligibility. |
|
Progressive – PRGS-133629881 |
Maintain share — 14% statewide increase over 67K policies. |
Sep 22 ’23 live. |
New surcharge for personal-use miles on business autos. |
|
Travelers – TRVD-133792357 |
Aggressive 60% request (driver-scoring overhaul). |
In review for May 1 ’25. |
Shift to graduated driver tiers; severity-inflation assumption 12 % p.a. |
|
State Farm – SFMA-133526847 & SFMA-133907666 |
No rate change; form hygiene. |
2023-24. |
Personal-vehicle-sharing language; windshield-glass deductible waiver. |
| Arizona / Colorado |
Progressive, Great West, Nationwide (multiple) |
Catch-up filings after loss-trend spike; low-20 % average. |
Early 2024 implementations. |
Adoption of telematics-mileage factors. |
| Washington / Oregon |
Mutual of Enumclaw, SAIF, Travelers |
Mid-teens increases; climate-risk surcharge pilots. |
Phased 2023-24. |
Mandatory “Green-fleet” endorsement options. |
Cross-market themes shaping the west
- Loss-cost inflation & social inflation – Carriers consistently cite >9% severity trend and supply-chain parts inflation; CNA’s filing assumptions (Liability +45%, PD +31%) are emblematic.
- Regulatory churn – CA DOI objections drive multiple re-submissions (e.g., AIG’s excess-rental program AGNY-133533806 withdrawn, resubmitting in 2025).
- Market exits creating capacity gaps – Full withdrawals by Allstate (MWSG-133632228) and GEICO (GECC-133928357) shrink available limit, pressuring remaining carriers to absorb business at higher rates.
- Product innovation toward niche risks –
- Towing programs (AmGUARD REGU-133752030).
- Alternative-fuel vehicle deductibles (AIG).
- Cyber/connected-vehicle exclusions (Liberty Mutual).
- Granular rating sophistication – Mileage/usage factors (AmGUARD 2024) and driver-scoring overhauls (Travelers 2025) signal a pivot to telematics-style segmentation.
- Expense management & non-premium fees – Coast National’s emphasis on installment/late fees and Farmers’ EFT-discount rules show a hunt for ancillary revenue and retention levers.
Strategic implications & watch-list
HTML Table Generator
| Issue |
Why it Matters |
Actions for (Re)Insurers & Brokers |
| Capacity squeeze post-exits |
Raises attachment points & pushes insureds toward E&S market. |
Build quota-share options; revisit aggregate limits on West fleets. |
| Large pending hikes (60%+ requests) |
If approved, can trigger policyholder shopping and retention shocks. |
Model elasticity; pre-file alternative quotes for top decile fleets. |
| Telematics & mileage factors |
Under-reported miles a key DOI objection area. |
Prepare data-sharing agreements; invest in mileage-verification tech. |
| Cyber-auto endorsements |
Emerging mandatory form trend. |
Align wording across lines; educate insureds on coverage gaps. |
| Climate-related surcharges (WA/OR) |
Spreads to CA likely by 2026. |
Incorporate catastrophe-model feedback loops into auto pricing. |
Key SERFF numbers to keep on your radar
- FARM-133728959 / 134082111 – Farmers’ twin hikes framing the 60% cumulative strategy.
- CNAB-133696823 – CNA’s multi-company overhaul, largest single-filing dollar impact.
- AGNY-133746770 – AIG’s selective 30-39% increase with green-vehicle credits.
- BRWS-133690786 – Coast National 41% launch of COM 1.0 (Arizona & CA exposures).
- PRGS-133629881 – Progressive’s 14% adjustment over the largest West footprint.
- TRVD-133792357 – Travelers’ pending 60% driver-scoring filing (May ’25).
Bottom line
The Western U.S. – and California in particular – has entered a pronounced hard-market phase for Commercial Auto. Filings reveal broad-based, often multi-stage rate escalation, strategic program withdrawals, and rapid product innovation aimed at emerging risks. Carriers that combine disciplined underwriting, granular rating tech, and proactive regulatory engagement are best positioned to navigate the remainder of 2025 and beyond.
