Executive Summary — Commercial Lines Rate-Filing Pulse (Rolling 12 months, May 2025)
(Commercial Auto & Businessowners / CMP, latest-12-months cohort)
Market-Level View (Why 2024-25 Matters)
- $3.68B of written-premium movement was placed in front of U.S. regulators in the past 12 months - $1.86B in Commercial Auto and $1.82B in BOP/CMP. The total is 38% higher than the comparable 2023 window, confirming that inflation, social-inflation verdicts and secondary-peril CATs are now fully embedding into rate filings.
- Regional split is bifurcated.
- Commercial Auto: South 48% > East 22% > West 19% > Midwest 11%.
- BOP: West 41% > South 30% > Midwest 16% > East 13%.
- The South's liability-heavy auto portfolios and the West's CAT-exposed property books are driving the divergence.
- State hot-spots repeat across lines - California and Texas alone account for ~42% of premium re-rated in each line, but the "second tier" is line-specific (Colorado & Oregon for BOP property, Georgia & the Carolinas for Auto liability).
- Five carriers account for >50% of all commercial-lines premium change, but their line mix differs sharply (see § 3).
Region-by-Region Dashboard
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| Region |
BOP share (premium $) |
Commercial Auto share (premium $) |
What's pushing filings? |
| West |
41% |
19% |
Wildfire/secondary-peril CAT load; rebuild-cost CPI >17%. |
| South |
30% |
48% |
Bodily-injury sevirity up 18%; nuclear verdict clime; parts inflation. |
| East |
13% |
22% |
Liability verdict severity; coastal wind/hail retentions; cargo supply-chain strain. |
| Midwest |
16% |
11% |
Slower exposure growth; moderate CAT but rising convective-storm claims. |
Carrier Spotlights - Who's Pulling the Levers?
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| Rank (by written-premium change) |
BOP / CMP (share of $1.82B) |
Commercial Auto (share of $1.86B) |
Strategic posture |
| #1 |
State Farm 24% |
Travelers 12% |
SF: property-heavy rental dwelling & condo focus; double-digit hikes across 15 states (NE +42%, OR +36%). Travelers: ISO-aligned multiplers, 8-16% hikes, COVID-year normalization. |
| #2 |
Farmers 15% |
Progressive 10% |
Farmers: bold BOP push (Restaurant & Habitational +20% in VA, CO +21%) plus Business-Income endorsement bundle. Progressive: multi-tier Cargo Plus endorsement rollout in >20 states; 7-20% hikes keyed to trucking loss cost. |
| #3 |
Travelers 8% |
Liberty Mutual 5% |
Travelers' CMP filings are smaller but showcase cyber & wind/hail deductible tweaks; Liberty's Auto moves center on bodily-injury trend in Gulf states. |
| Challengers |
Liberty, Nationwide, Allstate |
Farmers, Nationwide, Berkshire, Erie |
Each is defending niche blocks (Landlord Protector, mid-market fleets) rather than broad portfolio resets. |
Key insight; property-centric mutuals (State Farm, Farmers) are front-loading BOP increases before 2025 hurricane & wildfire seasons, whereas liability-centric stock carriers (Travelers, Progressive) are chasing Auto loss-trend slippage mid-year
Deep-Dive Narratives by Flagship Carrier
State Farm - "Rental-Dwelling Reboot"
- 59 CMP filings across 22 states; rental dwelling & condo unit owners drive > $440M of premium change.
- Double-digit hikes in 15 states led by NE +42% and OR +36%. Wind/hail deductible and mine-subsidence endorsements bolster property pricing.
- Strategic pivot: cyber-suite rollouts in 7 states position the book for SME digital-risk upsells.
Farmers - "BOP Income Guard"
- 35 BOP filings; coordinated multiproduct submissions in TX, VA, CO.
- Mandatory Business-Income & Civil-Authority endorsements signal value-add repositioning; Restaurant segment up 20% in VA, CO general BOP up 21%.
- Selective rate decreases (NY Artisan -15%, AL BOP -10%) demonstrate tactical competitive pricing in pockets with improved loss experience.
Progressive - "Freight First"
- 93 Commercial Auto filings via eight entities; Georgia, NJ, OH headline with 7-20% hikes.
- Cargo Plus Coverage Endorsement introduced in >20 states, extending to refrigeration-breakdown & legal-liability segments; no immediate rate load but primes future package pricing.
- Annual Medium Fleet GLM refreshes push >25% increases in KS & NC when warranted, showing data-driven micro-segmentation.
Travelers - "ISO Alignment & Northland Niche"
- 25 Commercial Auto filings, majority 8-15% increases; early adopters of ISO CA-20240BRLC1 with company-specific multipliers.
- Northland specialty-transportation program expands (new commodity factor, trailer-interchange forms) with 0-rate filings that strengthen retention on profitable niches.
- Customer-Pricing-Stabilization caps (TX) illustrate balancing act between adequacy and renewal shock.
Cross-Line Themes & Emerging Risks
- Inflation Entrenchment
- Property repair CPI +17%; Auto parts CPI +11%. Carriers are embedding 6-8% fixed trend loads on top of loss-cost models. - Cyber & Tech-E&O creep into BOP
- State Farm and Farmers cyber suites show regulators warming to packaged cyber endorsements; expect 1-2 pts of additional rate in 2025. - Cargo & Supply-Chain exposures
- Progressive's cargo endorsement and Travelers' commodity-factor testing point to heightened focus on inland-marine-like perils within Auto filings. - Weather-driven re-tiering
- CAT scorecards in CO, OR, ID foreshadow more granular wildfire & convective-storm surcharges rather than blanket statewide hikes. - Regulatory friction
- Southern DOI's (FL, GA, LA) lengthening approval timelines to >120 days for Auto filings; Western DOI's pushing "bite-sized" (<15%) property filings.
What's Happening with Workers Compensation?
Workers' Compensation (WC) remains the calmest commercial insurance segment, with premiums contracting 3% due to favorable loss trends. While most states saw rate decreases, Florida and Tennessee experienced increases. Major carriers employed diverse strategies, and upcoming trends include a widening indemnity-medical severity gap and new first responder benefits. Leadership must leverage WC's softness to offset hardening Commercial Auto and BOP markets, while strategically adjusting for evolving loss dynamics.
Strategic Implications for Executive Leadership
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| Decision Lens |
Recommended Action |
Rationale |
| Capital Allocation |
Reinvest BOP CAT-margin gains into South/East Commercial Auto portfolios to cover 100–150 bps of underlying loss-trend gap in 2025. |
BOP rate gets to the bottom-line faster (shorter tail); surplus can smooth Auto earnings drag. |
| Product Development |
Bundle cyber-suite or BI/EE endorsements with inflation-guard options; pilot usage-based endorsements for light-duty fleets. |
Differentiates on coverage breadth while mitigating rate fatigue; aligns with carrier trendsetters. |
| Regulatory Strategy |
Pre-file GLM white papers on social-inflation and parts CPI; use flex-rating where available to stage increases quarterly. |
Speeds approvals and reduces objection cycles observed in Travelers/Progressive filings. |
| Distribution Messaging |
Launch broker webinars by region: West—property inflation & deductible shifts; South—fleet liability spikes; East—cargo / refrigeration add-ons. |
Educates agents, heads off retention shocks, and cross-sells new endorsements. |
Closing Outlook
The 2024-25 commercial-lines cycle is a tale of two curves: property-driven BOP rate momentum out West and liability-driven Commercial Auto acceleration in the South/East. Carriers best positioned for 2025 will (1) synchronize filing cadence with exposure-specific loss dynamics, (2) reinvest surplus from early-mover BOP hikes into lagging Auto segments, and (3) lean into product-adjacent upgrades (cyber, cargo, business-income) that secure risk-adjusted growth without leaning solely on base-rate increases. Endorsement and exclusion focus should be combined with rate to help improve profitability
Executive leadership should view the next six months as the “reset window”—a chance to lock in adequate pricing before CAT season volatility and continued social-inflation pressures narrow the runway.
