Executive snapshot (why Berkshire’s 2024 playbook looks so different)
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| Metric |
2022-23 (post-pandemic catch-up) |
2024 YTD (selective resets) |
| Premium tied to Berkshire personal-auto filings |
$9.9B |
$0.29B |
| Premium-weighted avg. rate impact |
+6.5% |
+1.3% |
| States with net ↑ / ↓ / 0 change |
46 / 0 / 1 |
11 / 25 / 9 |
Sources: “Berkshire Hathaway Premium Changes by Region – Personal Lines –Since 2022”, “Berkshire vs Peers vs The Rest – Premium Changes by Region –Since 2024”, and state-level companion files.
Berkshire vs. peers since 2024 – the outlier strategy
Region-level filings filed after 1 Jan 2024 show Berkshire carving out avery different path from the “big-4” peers (State Farm, Progressive, Allstate,Liberty Mutual) and from the long-tail “Other” group:
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| Region |
Berkshire premiun-weighted impact |
Top-4 peers |
All other writers |
| East |
-0.1% |
+6.6% |
+5.5% |
| Midwest |
-0.5% |
+1.3% |
+3.7% |
| South |
+1.2% |
+2.3% |
+3.8% |
| West |
+0.5% |
+5.0% |
+6.7% |
| Total |
+1.3% |
+4.3% |
+5.3% |
Observation: while competitors are still pushing mid-single-digit increases to cope with continued loss-cost inflation, Berkshire’s filings are flat-to-down in the East & Midwest and only modestly positive elsewhere. That restraint follows two very aggressive post-pandemic years (2022-23) when Berkshire rang up a cumulative +6-8% in every region, front-loading a lot of margin recovery earlier than peers.
Strategic takeaway: Berkshire appears to be harvesting the goodwill of last cycle’s increases and using price stability as a retention / share-grab lever just as rivals’ renewal notices remain elevated.
What changed between 2022-23 and 2024?
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| Region |
2022-23 weighted impact |
2024 weighted impact |
Directional shift |
| West |
+8.5% |
+0.5% |
▼ –8.0 pp |
| South |
+5.2% |
+1.2% |
▼ –4.0 pp |
| East |
+5.7% |
-0.1% |
▼ –5.8 pp |
| Midwest |
+5.7% |
-0.5% |
▼ –6.2 pp |
Berkshire has de-risked its rate plan almost everywhere, implying that the company:
- Believes its 2022-23 hikes already offset loss-severity pressure (especially bodily-injury severity that peaked in 2023).
- Prioritizes retention while competitors remain in the rate-cycle upswing.
- May be betting on favorable re-underwriting (tighter segmentation, usage-based endorsements) to defend margins without headline rate.
State-by-state drill-down (filings dated 2024-YTD)
Top ten upward moves
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| State |
Impact |
Premium at stake ($) |
| California |
+25.7% |
4.7M |
| Nevada |
+17.2% |
108.3M |
| Texas |
+5.5% |
228.4M |
| Montana |
+2.9% |
1.9M |
| Minnesota |
+2.1% |
14.2M |
| Delaware |
+2.0% |
9.6M |
| Georgia |
+1.5% |
96.5M |
| Maryland |
+1.2% |
21.6M |
| New Jersey |
+0.5% |
22.8M |
| Vermont |
+0.4% |
0.3M |
Top ten downward moves
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| State |
Impact |
Premium at stake ($) |
| Iowa |
-3.2% |
-4.5M |
| Colorado |
-2.3% |
-26.2M |
| Nebraska |
-2.2% |
-2.5M |
| Tennessee |
-2.1% |
-25.7M |
| Indiana |
-1.5% |
-6.5M |
| Arizona |
-1.4% |
-29.2M |
| Louisiana |
-1.4% |
-12.2M |
| Oregon |
-1.3% |
-12.1M |
What the pattern says
- Targeted relief in large “growth” states (TX, GA) but surgical cuts in high-loss, high-churn states (PA, CO, LA).
- California stands out: a single +25% filing, but on a narrow book—likely a niche program or retro-rating segment designed to restore profitability after the 2022-23 moratorium environment.
- Flat filings in 9 states signal a deliberate wait-and-see posture where Berkshire feels its 2022-23 head-room is still adequate.
Why this matters for competitors
- Timing advantage: having moved early (2022-23), Berkshire can now pause, advertise “stable prices,” and exploit competitors’ sticker shock.
- Selective aggressiveness: the company still pushes double-digit hikes where actuarial indications are unavoidable (e.g., Nevada bodily-injury severity).
- Capital deployment: the $0.29B of premium affected in 2024 is < 3% of what Berkshire touched in the prior two years, freeing bandwidth to funnel capital into new-business growth instead of DOIs.
- Regulatory optics: rolling back or flattening rates in the East & Midwest may curry favor with departments that earlier approved sizeable hikes.
Watch-list items & next steps
- Monitor SERFF dockets for follow-up filings in TX and NV; if Berkshire pursues a second-round increase, peers may need to match to avoid adverse selection.
- Keep an eye on Pennsylvania: A −7% cut suggests profitability is solid; expect switching activity from carriers still raising rates.
- Loss-cost trend vs. margin: If frequency or severity re-accelerates in H2-2025, Berkshire’s restraint could compress margins faster than peers that are still “pricing ahead of trend.”
Bottom line
Berkshire Hathaway used 2022-23 to push through industry-leading increases (≈ +6.5% on nearly $10B of premium). Having banked that cushion, it is now the only top-five auto writer leaning into price stability—cutting or freezing rates in 34 of 45 state-level filings in 2024. The strategy should lift retention and new-business flow in the near term, but competitors need to decide quickly whether to preserve margin (and risk share) or follow Berkshire down the slope in the next renewal cycle.
