Executive snapshot
- South punches above its weight. Roughly one-third of every new Personal-Auto premium dollar written nationwide since 1 Jan 2023 originated in Southern states, led by Texas and Georgia.
- Price momentum is still strong. Double-digit indications, high-single-digit selected trends and rising litigation costs mean most carriers expect at least one more 6-10 pt round of filings before YE 2025.
- Four groups move the needle. State Farm, Allstate (incl. Encompass/Esurance), Berkshire Hathaway/GEICO and Progressive represent >70% of incremental premium, each executing a distinct multi-state cadence.
State-level market drivers
HTML Table Generator
| State |
Share of South premium Δ |
Notable filings (SERFF) |
Key take-aways |
| Texas |
≈37% |
SFMA-133817321 (+13% / +16.8%) State Farm · ALSE-133595228 (+30%) Encompass · PRGS-133683762 (+13.1%) Progressive · FARM-133522029 (+13%) Farmers |
Layered double-digit hikes plus MVCPA fee pass-throughs; DOI clears well-documented filings quickly, favoring telematics credits |
| Georgia |
≈20% |
GECC-133575447 (+13.8%) GEICO · AOIC-133512395 (+28.2%) Auto-Owners · SFMA-133577388 (+14.2%) State Farm |
2024 fast-track cut approval times to ~75 days, but DOI still blocks non-binary gender factors; carriers respond with mileage & prior-coverage models instead. |
| South Carolina |
≈6% |
LBPM-133611746 (+29.8%) Liberty · USAA-133549648 (+7.5 – 19.3%) USAA · GECC-133525906 (+12%) GEICO |
DOI willing to approve >25% hikes if trend support is robust; intense objection cycles on loss trends and profit loads prolong reviews to ~120 days. |
| Maryland* |
≈9% |
PRGS-133817007 (+11.7%) Progressive · USAA-133591365 (+5 – 16.9%) USAA · GECC-134042308 (-2.5 – -4.9% withdrawn) GEICO |
Telematics-rich filings clear fastest; 2024 saw first “give-back” filings as DOI nudged large writers to temper prior hikes |
| Tennessee |
≈6% |
SFMA-133539787 (+9.4%) State Farm (reflected in state report narrative) · ALSE-133656244 (+23%) Esurance |
New PD-limit law triggered form-only bursts; DOI allows double-digit increases if paired with ±50% renewal-cap rules |
*Maryland is classified as “South” in the user-provided dataset.
Carrier-level competitive landscape
Playbooks vary:
- State Farm alternates sizeable hikes with small give-backs and layers predictive-model filings (SFMA-134249853 et al.) .
- GEICO favors 4–10 % “mini-filings” every 6–8 months, often group-wide.
- Allstate combines bar-bell hikes (+30 % on legacy blocks, +6 % follow-ups) with channel pruning to Independent Agents (ALSE-134487022) .
Emerging Regional Themes
HTML Table Generator
| Theme |
Evidence |
Strategic Implications |
| Severity & litigation inflation still out-running earned rate |
TX filings cite +14% BI severity trend (FARM-133522029) ; SC BI severity up >18% (LBPM-133611746 notes) |
Expect sustained 6-8% trend selections through 2025; carriers exploring tighter UM/UIM limits and litigation-management spend. |
| Telematics as a regulatory lubricant |
Progressive MD telematics discounts noted across filings PRGS-133659305 & symbol filing PRGS-134445959 |
DOI goodwill accelerates approvals; but rising privacy scrutiny means carriers should bolster disclosures & opt-in controls |
| Renewal-cap & staggered filings |
GEICO TX renewal cap (GECC-133716138); State Farm GA –4.4% give-back after prior +14% (SFMA-134459996) |
Smooths customer impact, but delays earned-rate pick-up; actuaries modelling longer pay-back horizons |
| Channel & product realignment |
Encompass MD withdrawal (ALSE-133806211, state rpt); State Farm Classic+ new collector vehicle program (SFCI-133559370) |
Allows shedding unprofitable books and targeting niche growth; watch for agent-channel tension |
Looking Ahead (2025-26)
- One more big wave. Even after 2023-24 hikes, Southern combined ratios remain >100%. Plan for another 5-10 pts of rate, likely delivered in two sub-10% tranches.
- Affordability optics matter. Filings above ~15% are drawing press coverage (e.g., Liberty Mutual SC +29.8%) . Layered smaller increases plus usage-based discounts cushion blowback.
- Data governance & fairness. GA’s rejection of non-binary gender factors shows regulators will scrutinize new variables; be ready with disparate-impact testing.
- Diversify exposure. 57% of Southern premium growth sits in TX + GA; carriers should reinforce capital allocation and claims-cost initiatives in smaller South markets (SC, TN) to balance risk.
Recommendations for Executives
HTML Table Generator
| Priority |
Action |
| Pricing cadence |
Adopt 6–8 month filing rhythm with 4–8% moves, supported by granular coverage-level exhibits. |
| Regulatory strategy |
Front-load telematics credits, renewal caps and non-rate form updates to build trust; maintain proactive objection response logs. |
| Claims cost containment |
Invest in litigation analytics and early settlement programs in TX/GA courts; expand DRP networks in high-severity metros. |
| Product innovation |
Pilot mileage-based or collector-vehicle programs where rate adequacy is constrained; leverage MD telematics lessons for broader rollout. |
Source Map
All quantitative and filing-specific statements derive from user-suppliedreports and datasets, with core citations throughout the text (e.g., SFMA-133817321 State Farm TX , GECC-133575447 GEICO GA , LBPM-133611746 Liberty SC).
Where no citation appears, figures come from the user-provided aggregate premium-change CSVs.
